George W. Bush will not be re-elected. Everything has been bad since Bush became president, from the attack on the World Trade Center to the general downturn in the economy. No president can be re-elected in the face of such uniformly bad news. It seems unlikely that things will get better in the next two years. The Republicans might even decide to jettison Bush and nominate somebody else for president.
The only chance Bush will have to be re-elected will be to start a major war. Americans have always re-elected their incumbent presidents in time of war. This is an option that Bush is obviously considering.
Whoever is nominated by the Democrats will be the next president. Whom will they nominate? I do not believe that the Democrats will return to Al Gore. He is perceived as being a weak man who squandered the tremendous advantages he had during the last election.
I am convinced that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Candidate for President in 2004. You read that right. If you disagree, try to think of somebody else. You will not be able to think of anyone.
Hillary will not pass up this chance. She will know that George W. Bush is dead in the water, politically. If she waits longer, she may not get another clear chance.
This situation with Bush Junior running against the former president's wife will create tremendous opportunities for third party candidates. Many Americans will not be willing to vote for either George or Hillary and will be searching for another candidate.
This situation could easily propel the Libertarian Party or some other third party into becoming a major party.
In order to achieve that, we have to take seriously the task of selecting a candidate. Third parties have a reputation for selecting candidates who turn about to be some flako or nut. This time, we need to look for a serious person who can be taken seriously by the American people as a candidate, who could actually be elected and would be capable of holding the reins of power in his hands.